Seminars
Use of mixture-model track clustering to interpret tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts
October 31, 2019 10:00 am
CIRA Director’s Conference Room
Presented by: Alex Kowaleski
Hosted by: Dr. Kate Musgrave, CIRA
Penn State University
Ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones provide a wealth of data for operational forecasters and researchers, but fully utilizing the data remains a challenge. Regression mixture-model clustering is demonstrated as a method to partition tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts into a small number of groups based on track. Clustering facilitates the exploration of storm evolution and hazards… Read more »
Satellite radiance data assimilation within the NOAA hourly Rapid Refresh and High-Resolution Rapid Refresh
September 25, 2019 10:30 am
CIRA Director’s Conference Room
Presented by: Dr. Haidao Lin
Hosted by:
CIRA/CSU and NOAA/ESRL/GSD
Satellite radiance data have been shown to have consistent positive impact with statistical significance within the NOAA Rapid Refresh (RAP) hourly updated model system. RAP version 4 (RAPv4) was implemented operationally at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in July 2018. This implementation included a significant radiance upgrade package with greater use of direct… Read more »
Improving Quantitative Precipitation Estimation in Complex Terrain over the San Francisco Bay Area Using Profiler and Gap-filling Radar Observations
September 19, 2019 9:30 am
CIRA Director’s Conference Room
Presented by: Dr. Haonan Chen
Hosted by:
Radar, Satellite, and Precipitation Research Scientist with CIRA and Physical Sciences Division of NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
The San Francisco Bay Area is covered by two operational S-band WSR-88D: KMUX and KDAX. However, the KDAX radar beams are partially blocked at low elevation angles due to the mountainous terrain, whereas the KMUX radar is deployed at an elevation of over 1000 m, which can easily overshoot precipitation during the winter storm seasons… Read more »
Part 2: Preliminary Analysis of Wind Gusts in Recent Landfalling Hurricanes
August 19, 2019 3:00 pm
CIRA Director’s Conference Room
Presented by: John Kaplan
Hosted by:
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division
Forecasting the timing and magnitude of tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) remains an ongoing forecasting problem. Although the ability of deterministic tropical cyclone intensity models to forecast such events has improved, their skill remains inadequate. Thus, forecasters have relied on other tools such as the SHIPS suite of probabilistic statistical rapid intensity models to aid… Read more »
Part 1: Statistical Rapid Intensity Prediction: A Review of Recent Model Results
August 19, 2019 3:00 pm
CIRA Director’s Conference Room
Presented by: John Kaplan
Hosted by:
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division
Forecasting the timing and magnitude of tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) remains an ongoing forecasting problem. Although the ability of deterministic tropical cyclone intensity models to forecast such events has improved, their skill remains inadequate. Thus, forecasters have relied on other tools such as the SHIPS suite of probabilistic statistical rapid intensity models to aid… Read more »
Search Seminars
Sign Up!
If you would like to receive email notifications when we post new seminars, just enter your information below.
We never sell your information, you can unsubscribe at anytime