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Colorado State University
  • Home
  • Welcome & About
    • About CIRA
      • Jobs
      • Letter from Christian Kummerow:
      • Map & Directions
      • Organizational Structure
      • Reports
      • Room Schedules
      • Staff Directory
      • Strategic Plan
      • Vision & Mission Statement
    • Themes
      • Climate and Weather Processes
      • Competitive Projects
      • Data Assimilation
      • Data Distributions
      • Education and Outreach
      • Modeling Systems Research
      • NOAA Projects
      • Satellite Algorithm Development, Training and Education
      • Societal and Economic Impact Studies
    • Collaborative Groups
      • Colorado Climate Center
      • National Park Service
      • Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch
  • Teams
    • Colorado Teams:
      • NOAA/Earth System Research Lab (ESRL) – Boulder, CO
      • Air Quality – Fort Collins, CO
      • Atmospheric Science (ATS) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Carbon – Fort Collins, CO
      • CIRA Software Engineering Group (CSEG) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Data Assimilation (DA) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Data Processing Centers (DPC) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Independent – Fort Collins, CO
      • MetSat – Fort Collins, CO
      • Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Training – Fort Collins, CO
      • Tropical Cyclone – Fort Collins, CO
    • Other Location Teams:
      • National Hurricane Center – Miami, FL
      • NESDIS Environmental Applications Team (NEAT) – College Park, MD
      • NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) – Silver Spring, MD
      • NWS/Aviation Weather Center (AWC) – Kansas City, MO
      • Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO-Training) – Kansas City, MO
  • News & Events
    • News
      • CIRA Administration News
      • Magazines
      • Reports
    • Events
      • Conferences
      • Seminars
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    • Imagery
      • Air Quality Research
        • Improve
        • VIEWS
      • CIRA Algorithm Testbed
      • CIRA Weather Station
      • RAMMB SLIDER
    • Data
      • CloudSat Data Processing Center
      • ECMWF Nature Run
      • RAMSDIS Online
        • GOES-West / GOES-East
        • Synthetic Forecast Imagery
        • Tropical Imagery
        • Suomi NPP VIIRS Imagery
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Search CIRA Website x
Christman Field Latest Observations
Date Time
MST
Temp
°F
RH
%
DewPt
°F
Wind
mph
Dir
°
Gust
mph
Dir
°
Press
in Hg
Solar
W/m^2
Prec
in
2021-04-19 21:25 20.7 94.7 19.4 2.7 293 3.1 294 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 21:20 20.7 94.7 19.4 2.9 319 3.5 332 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 21:15 20.8 94.6 19.5 2.7 334 3.2 334 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 21:10 20.9 94.7 19.6 3.2 332 4.9 339 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 21:05 20.9 94.7 19.6 2.4 325 3.5 325 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 21:00 20.9 94.7 19.6 2.6 302 3.3 296 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:55 20.9 94.7 19.6 2.1 325 3.0 319 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:50 21.0 94.5 19.7 2.2 323 3.6 344 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:45 21.0 94.5 19.7 3.4 316 5.0 323 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:40 21.0 94.5 19.7 3.8 322 4.8 324 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:35 21.0 94.4 19.6 4.0 333 4.8 323 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:30 21.0 94.6 19.7 4.5 307 6.4 316 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:25 20.9 94.6 19.6 4.1 311 5.7 336 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:20 21.0 94.7 19.7 5.0 341 6.6 326 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:15 20.9 94.8 19.7 4.9 336 5.9 331 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:10 20.9 94.6 19.6 6.6 332 8.2 337 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:05 21.0 94.7 19.7 6.9 332 8.8 332 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 20:00 21.0 94.5 19.6 9.0 332 11.7 338 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 19:55 21.1 94.8 19.9 9.0 337 11.3 339 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 19:50 21.2 94.9 19.9 9.4 329 11.2 335 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 19:45 21.2 94.9 20.0 8.8 338 11.2 328 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 19:40 21.4 95.3 20.2 8.5 323 10.6 321 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 19:35 21.4 95.3 20.2 7.4 322 8.8 330 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 19:30 21.4 95.1 20.2 7.9 334 9.0 336 0.000 0.0 0.00
2021-04-19 19:25 21.4 95.3 20.3 6.5 325 7.8 345 0.000 0.0 0.00
2021-04-19 19:20 21.4 95.3 20.3 8.4 349 9.6 342 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 19:15 21.5 95.4 20.4 8.0 342 10.3 354 0.000 0.0 0.00
2021-04-19 19:10 21.5 95.3 20.3 9.0 353 11.1 352 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-19 19:05 21.6 95.4 20.5 9.3 347 11.6 345 0.000 0.2 0.00
2021-04-19 19:00 21.6 95.4 20.5 10.9 355 13.2 2 0.000 0.3 0.00
CIRA

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

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Part 1: Statistical Rapid Intensity Prediction: A Review of Recent Model Results

August 19, 2019 3:00 pm
CIRA Director’s Conference Room

Presented by: John Kaplan

Hosted by:

NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division


Forecasting the timing and magnitude of tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) remains an ongoing forecasting problem.  Although the ability of deterministic tropical cyclone intensity models to forecast such events has improved, their skill remains inadequate. Thus, forecasters have relied on other tools such as the SHIPS suite of probabilistic statistical rapid intensity models to aid with the forecasting of RI. Since the start of the 2016 Hurricane Season, the SHIPS RI model guidance suite has provided operational RI forecasts at multiple lead times (12, 24, 36, 48 and 72-h) rather than the single lead time of 24-h for which it was originally developed. In our upcoming presentation, a verification of those operational multi-lead time forecasts as well as a discussion of preliminary efforts to improve those existing statistical RI models using storm structure information will be provided.

Although wind gusts produced by tropical cyclones are important for operational forecasting, building design, and for use in tropical cyclone damage models; explicit operational numerical model forecasts of wind gusts are currently not provided. Thus, forecasters and engineers typically apply gust factors that had been determined in previous studies to forecast wind gusts in real time. In our present study, high resolution surface wind observations obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information are utilized to compute gust factors in recent landfalling hurricanes Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Florence (2017), and Michael (2017). Preliminary results from the analysis of the distribution of gust factors in those four storms will be discussed in our upcoming presentation.

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
3925A West Laporte Ave.
Fort Collins, CO 80521

Phone: 970.491.8448
Fax: 970.491.8241

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