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Christman Field Latest Observations
Select Units
Date Time
MST
Temp
°F
RH
%
DewPt
°F
Wind
mph
Dir
°
Gust
mph
Dir
°
Press
in Hg
Solar
W/m^2
Prec
in
2022-12-09 02:25 18.5 73.0 11.3 5.8 255 6.5 246 24.924 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 02:20 18.5 70.6 10.6 3.5 239 5.1 239 24.923 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 02:15 19.9 69.2 11.4 3.0 244 3.5 242 24.923 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 02:10 20.1 67.8 11.2 3.2 252 5.1 296 24.925 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 02:05 19.3 68.0 10.5 4.1 298 5.9 315 24.926 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 02:00 19.8 63.3 9.3 2.8 314 3.2 285 24.927 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 01:55 20.1 68.4 11.3 1.9 286 3.1 289 24.929 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:50 21.0 65.8 11.4 1.7 287 2.1 279 24.933 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:45 20.9 65.5 11.2 1.7 260 2.3 259 24.930 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:40 20.4 66.8 11.1 1.5 246 2.3 227 24.933 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 01:35 20.6 66.2 11.1 0.4 250 1.8 250 24.934 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:30 20.1 67.5 11.0 1.0 355 1.9 349 24.932 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:25 20.4 65.8 10.7 1.8 349 2.4 49 24.928 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:20 20.2 66.0 10.7 2.9 69 3.3 78 24.931 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:15 20.2 67.5 11.2 3.2 61 4.4 70 24.930 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 01:10 22.1 63.0 11.4 2.2 62 2.8 61 24.927 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 01:05 22.2 63.0 11.5 2.0 179 2.8 183 24.920 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:00 22.7 61.9 11.6 2.6 192 4.2 193 24.915 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:55 22.2 64.1 11.9 3.3 187 4.3 195 24.915 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:50 21.2 67.2 12.0 2.2 204 3.2 204 24.917 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:45 20.3 67.6 11.3 0.8 230 2.2 235 24.919 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:40 18.2 69.7 10.0 1.6 234 3.0 222 24.926 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:35 17.0 70.9 9.2 2.2 199 4.0 188 24.928 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:30 18.4 68.4 9.7 3.0 254 4.4 297 24.925 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:25 21.3 64.0 11.0 2.2 294 3.1 256 24.925 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:20 24.3 56.9 11.2 1.6 190 2.3 199 24.927 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:15 24.1 54.6 10.1 2.2 187 4.3 174 24.930 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:10 23.3 57.8 10.6 3.6 178 5.0 183 24.935 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:05 23.0 62.0 11.9 3.2 189 3.9 184 24.939 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:00 23.5 58.9 11.2 3.7 178 4.3 147 24.940 0.1 0.00
Date Time
MST
Temp
°C
RH
%
DewPt
°C
Wind
m/s
Dir
°
Gust
m/s
Dir
°
Press
hPa
Solar
W/m^2
Prec
mm
2022-12-09 02:25 -7.5 73.0 -11.5 2.6 255 2.9 246 844.03 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 02:20 -7.5 70.6 -11.9 1.5 239 2.3 239 844.00 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 02:15 -6.7 69.2 -11.5 1.3 244 1.6 242 844.00 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 02:10 -6.6 67.8 -11.5 1.4 252 2.3 296 844.04 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 02:05 -7.1 68.0 -12.0 1.8 298 2.6 315 844.11 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 02:00 -6.8 63.3 -12.6 1.2 314 1.4 285 844.13 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 01:55 -6.6 68.4 -11.5 0.8 286 1.4 289 844.20 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:50 -6.1 65.8 -11.4 0.7 287 0.9 279 844.33 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:45 -6.1 65.5 -11.6 0.8 260 1.0 259 844.22 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:40 -6.4 66.8 -11.6 0.7 246 1.0 227 844.32 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 01:35 -6.4 66.2 -11.6 0.2 250 0.8 250 844.35 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:30 -6.6 67.5 -11.6 0.5 355 0.9 349 844.30 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:25 -6.5 65.8 -11.8 0.8 349 1.1 49 844.17 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:20 -6.5 66.0 -11.8 1.3 69 1.5 78 844.25 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:15 -6.6 67.5 -11.6 1.4 61 2.0 70 844.24 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 01:10 -5.5 63.0 -11.4 1.0 62 1.3 61 844.11 0.1 0.00
2022-12-09 01:05 -5.5 63.0 -11.4 0.9 179 1.3 183 843.88 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 01:00 -5.2 61.9 -11.4 1.2 192 1.9 193 843.73 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:55 -5.4 64.1 -11.2 1.5 187 1.9 195 843.71 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:50 -6.0 67.2 -11.1 1.0 204 1.4 204 843.78 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:45 -6.5 67.6 -11.5 0.3 230 1.0 235 843.85 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:40 -7.6 69.7 -12.2 0.7 234 1.3 222 844.08 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:35 -8.3 70.9 -12.7 1.0 199 1.8 188 844.16 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:30 -7.5 68.4 -12.4 1.3 254 2.0 297 844.05 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:25 -6.0 64.0 -11.7 1.0 294 1.4 256 844.06 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:20 -4.3 56.9 -11.6 0.7 190 1.0 199 844.11 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:15 -4.4 54.6 -12.2 1.0 187 1.9 174 844.23 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:10 -4.8 57.8 -11.9 1.6 178 2.2 183 844.38 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:05 -5.0 62.0 -11.2 1.4 189 1.8 184 844.52 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:00 -4.7 58.9 -11.6 1.6 178 1.9 147 844.58 0.1 0.00
CIRA

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Part 1: Statistical Rapid Intensity Prediction: A Review of Recent Model Results

August 19, 2019 3:00 pm
CIRA Director’s Conference Room

Presented by: John Kaplan

Hosted by:

NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division


Forecasting the timing and magnitude of tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) remains an ongoing forecasting problem.  Although the ability of deterministic tropical cyclone intensity models to forecast such events has improved, their skill remains inadequate. Thus, forecasters have relied on other tools such as the SHIPS suite of probabilistic statistical rapid intensity models to aid with the forecasting of RI. Since the start of the 2016 Hurricane Season, the SHIPS RI model guidance suite has provided operational RI forecasts at multiple lead times (12, 24, 36, 48 and 72-h) rather than the single lead time of 24-h for which it was originally developed. In our upcoming presentation, a verification of those operational multi-lead time forecasts as well as a discussion of preliminary efforts to improve those existing statistical RI models using storm structure information will be provided.

Although wind gusts produced by tropical cyclones are important for operational forecasting, building design, and for use in tropical cyclone damage models; explicit operational numerical model forecasts of wind gusts are currently not provided. Thus, forecasters and engineers typically apply gust factors that had been determined in previous studies to forecast wind gusts in real time. In our present study, high resolution surface wind observations obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information are utilized to compute gust factors in recent landfalling hurricanes Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Florence (2017), and Michael (2017). Preliminary results from the analysis of the distribution of gust factors in those four storms will be discussed in our upcoming presentation.