Christman Field Latest Observations
Date Time
MST
Temp
°F
RH
%
DewPt
°F
Wind
mph
Dir
°
Gust
mph
Dir
°
Press
in Hg
Solar
W/m^2
Prec
in
2019-09-16 14:30 89.2 12.1 30.1 5.1 150 8.7 149 24.728 725.2 0.00
2019-09-16 14:25 89.9 12.0 30.6 6.2 146 9.2 139 24.748 772.6 0.00
2019-09-16 14:20 89.8 12.1 30.6 7.0 122 11.3 134 24.740 770.1 0.00
2019-09-16 14:15 89.8 12.8 32.1 5.5 72 9.3 121 24.763 802.0 0.00
2019-09-16 14:10 90.7 12.3 31.7 7.0 109 11.9 118 24.757 857.0 0.00
2019-09-16 14:05 91.5 11.6 31.0 6.0 121 17.9 179 24.745 887.0 0.00
2019-09-16 14:00 89.5 11.8 29.8 2.4 176 6.1 230 24.738 905.0 0.00
2019-09-16 13:55 88.4 11.8 29.1 6.1 244 8.2 220 24.723 839.0 0.00
2019-09-16 13:50 87.9 12.5 30.1 6.8 264 10.4 233 24.750 679.2 0.00
2019-09-16 13:45 88.4 12.5 30.4 4.6 302 6.7 213 24.752 834.0 0.00
2019-09-16 13:40 88.1 12.5 30.1 4.7 241 8.3 191 24.760 847.0 0.00
2019-09-16 13:35 88.9 12.6 30.9 6.1 135 10.6 141 24.764 883.0 0.00
2019-09-16 13:30 88.8 12.6 30.9 5.5 235 9.6 202 24.766 906.0 0.00
2019-09-16 13:25 89.1 12.1 30.2 4.8 135 7.5 151 24.766 907.0 0.00
2019-09-16 13:20 87.3 12.7 29.9 3.4 151 8.1 136 24.767 790.1 0.00
2019-09-16 13:15 86.4 13.1 30.0 4.5 141 7.0 137 24.768 453.6 0.00
2019-09-16 13:10 85.9 14.2 31.5 3.4 144 7.7 116 24.769 385.8 0.00
2019-09-16 13:05 85.9 12.9 29.2 3.5 78 7.7 93 24.770 329.3 0.00
2019-09-16 13:00 86.2 13.4 30.5 5.3 93 8.7 125 24.771 325.0 0.00
2019-09-16 12:55 87.3 13.2 30.9 5.6 115 8.3 81 24.771 386.8 0.00
2019-09-16 12:50 88.0 12.9 30.8 4.9 82 7.3 82 24.773 818.0 0.00
2019-09-16 12:45 87.2 13.2 30.7 6.1 138 9.1 154 24.774 832.0 0.00
2019-09-16 12:40 86.2 13.6 30.8 6.2 92 10.0 142 24.775 556.3 0.00
2019-09-16 12:35 85.4 13.6 30.1 6.8 124 10.8 126 24.774 452.3 0.00
2019-09-16 12:30 85.4 14.5 31.7 7.3 141 12.1 133 24.773 431.1 0.00
2019-09-16 12:25 85.6 14.2 31.3 8.1 152 11.0 149 24.771 415.6 0.00
2019-09-16 12:20 85.7 13.1 29.3 5.8 119 9.6 127 24.771 494.2 0.00
2019-09-16 12:15 86.6 12.7 29.3 5.6 156 9.8 127 24.775 456.1 0.00
2019-09-16 12:10 87.6 12.9 30.6 7.2 131 10.6 130 24.776 888.0 0.00
2019-09-16 12:05 87.1 13.4 31.1 6.5 151 10.7 164 24.776 875.0 0.00
CIRA

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Part 1: Statistical Rapid Intensity Prediction: A Review of Recent Model Results

August 19, 2019 3:00 pm
CIRA Director’s Conference Room

Presented by: John Kaplan

Hosted by:

NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division


Forecasting the timing and magnitude of tropical cyclone rapid intensification (RI) remains an ongoing forecasting problem.  Although the ability of deterministic tropical cyclone intensity models to forecast such events has improved, their skill remains inadequate. Thus, forecasters have relied on other tools such as the SHIPS suite of probabilistic statistical rapid intensity models to aid with the forecasting of RI. Since the start of the 2016 Hurricane Season, the SHIPS RI model guidance suite has provided operational RI forecasts at multiple lead times (12, 24, 36, 48 and 72-h) rather than the single lead time of 24-h for which it was originally developed. In our upcoming presentation, a verification of those operational multi-lead time forecasts as well as a discussion of preliminary efforts to improve those existing statistical RI models using storm structure information will be provided.

Although wind gusts produced by tropical cyclones are important for operational forecasting, building design, and for use in tropical cyclone damage models; explicit operational numerical model forecasts of wind gusts are currently not provided. Thus, forecasters and engineers typically apply gust factors that had been determined in previous studies to forecast wind gusts in real time. In our present study, high resolution surface wind observations obtained from the National Center for Environmental Information are utilized to compute gust factors in recent landfalling hurricanes Harvey (2017), Irma (2017), Florence (2017), and Michael (2017). Preliminary results from the analysis of the distribution of gust factors in those four storms will be discussed in our upcoming presentation.