How and Why Does Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Respond to Climate Change?
Presented by: Alyssa Stansfield - NSF Postdoctoral Fellow Department of Atmospheric Science in Professor Kristen Rasmussen's research group
Hosted by: Dr. Steve Miller
Date: December 8, 2022 10:00 am
Location: CIRA Commons
Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation can create dangerous hazards and cause millions of dollars in damages. While previous literature agrees that future TC precipitation will increase due to rising global temperatures, the estimates of how much it will increase vary, ranging from around 3 to 20% per °C of warming, or three times the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling (about 7% per °C). In this talk, various methodologies and datasets are utilized to disentangle the interwoven factors that impact the response of TC precipitation to warming, including TC intensity, outer size, landfall frequency, and increases in atmospheric moisture. Results are first presented for the North Atlantic and eastern United States specifically and then generalized globally using idealized aquaplanet model simulations. The idealized simulations are compared to more realistic global model simulations and satellite observations of TC precipitation. Finally, proposed high-resolution (~1 km) limited-domain idealized simulations with the goal of exploring changes in three-dimensional TC precipitation structures as sea surface temperatures warm are discussed.