Skip to content
Christman Field Latest Observations
Select Units
Date Time
MST
Temp
°F
RH
%
DewPt
°F
Wind
mph
Dir
°
Gust
mph
Dir
°
Press
in Hg
Solar
W/m^2
Prec
in
2022-12-09 00:45 20.3 67.6 11.3 0.8 230 2.2 235 24.919 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:40 18.2 69.7 10.0 1.6 234 3.0 222 24.926 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:35 17.0 70.9 9.2 2.2 199 4.0 188 24.928 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:30 18.4 68.4 9.7 3.0 254 4.4 297 24.925 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:25 21.3 64.0 11.0 2.2 294 3.1 256 24.925 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:20 24.3 56.9 11.2 1.6 190 2.3 199 24.927 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:15 24.1 54.6 10.1 2.2 187 4.3 174 24.930 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:10 23.3 57.8 10.6 3.6 178 5.0 183 24.935 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:05 23.0 62.0 11.9 3.2 189 3.9 184 24.939 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:00 23.5 58.9 11.2 3.7 178 4.3 147 24.940 0.1 0.00
2022-12-08 23:55 23.3 60.3 11.5 4.5 147 5.8 130 24.939 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:50 24.3 56.9 11.2 2.3 137 4.0 137 24.937 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:45 24.7 55.1 10.9 2.1 160 3.0 225 24.935 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:40 23.7 57.5 10.9 2.4 231 3.7 231 24.934 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:35 23.4 60.8 11.9 3.3 174 4.6 220 24.933 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:30 24.8 55.9 11.3 4.8 226 5.9 240 24.930 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:25 23.9 60.3 12.2 4.4 240 4.9 238 24.932 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:20 23.0 58.5 10.7 5.1 232 5.5 243 24.933 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:15 22.5 61.8 11.4 4.8 246 5.6 252 24.933 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:10 21.7 62.8 11.0 3.8 272 4.3 248 24.935 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:05 23.6 55.6 10.1 3.0 234 3.5 236 24.936 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:00 21.7 61.2 10.4 2.1 192 2.5 186 24.935 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:55 21.3 64.1 11.0 3.6 213 4.6 224 24.933 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:50 22.4 62.3 11.4 4.1 229 4.9 255 24.935 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:45 21.5 62.8 10.8 3.4 256 4.3 190 24.936 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:40 21.4 63.2 10.8 4.7 195 5.3 190 24.933 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:35 22.9 62.0 11.8 5.6 229 6.1 260 24.932 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:30 22.2 59.7 10.3 2.5 253 5.9 257 24.934 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:25 20.0 66.7 10.8 1.0 175 2.8 282 24.935 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:20 21.2 63.0 10.6 3.8 284 6.3 269 24.935 0.2 0.00
Date Time
MST
Temp
°C
RH
%
DewPt
°C
Wind
m/s
Dir
°
Gust
m/s
Dir
°
Press
hPa
Solar
W/m^2
Prec
mm
2022-12-09 00:45 -6.5 67.6 -11.5 0.3 230 1.0 235 843.85 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:40 -7.6 69.7 -12.2 0.7 234 1.3 222 844.08 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:35 -8.3 70.9 -12.7 1.0 199 1.8 188 844.16 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:30 -7.5 68.4 -12.4 1.3 254 2.0 297 844.05 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:25 -6.0 64.0 -11.7 1.0 294 1.4 256 844.06 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:20 -4.3 56.9 -11.6 0.7 190 1.0 199 844.11 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:15 -4.4 54.6 -12.2 1.0 187 1.9 174 844.23 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:10 -4.8 57.8 -11.9 1.6 178 2.2 183 844.38 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:05 -5.0 62.0 -11.2 1.4 189 1.8 184 844.52 0.2 0.00
2022-12-09 00:00 -4.7 58.9 -11.6 1.6 178 1.9 147 844.58 0.1 0.00
2022-12-08 23:55 -4.9 60.3 -11.4 2.0 147 2.6 130 844.53 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:50 -4.3 56.9 -11.6 1.0 137 1.8 137 844.46 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:45 -4.0 55.1 -11.7 1.0 160 1.3 225 844.41 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:40 -4.6 57.5 -11.7 1.1 231 1.6 231 844.36 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:35 -4.8 60.8 -11.2 1.5 174 2.0 220 844.34 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:30 -4.0 55.9 -11.5 2.1 226 2.6 240 844.23 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:25 -4.5 60.3 -11.0 2.0 240 2.2 238 844.31 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:20 -5.0 58.5 -11.9 2.3 232 2.5 243 844.32 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:15 -5.3 61.8 -11.5 2.1 246 2.5 252 844.31 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:10 -5.7 62.8 -11.7 1.7 272 1.9 248 844.38 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:05 -4.6 55.6 -12.2 1.3 234 1.6 236 844.42 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 23:00 -5.7 61.2 -12.0 0.9 192 1.1 186 844.38 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:55 -6.0 64.1 -11.7 1.6 213 2.1 224 844.31 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:50 -5.4 62.3 -11.4 1.9 229 2.2 255 844.39 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:45 -5.8 62.8 -11.8 1.5 256 1.9 190 844.42 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:40 -5.9 63.2 -11.8 2.1 195 2.4 190 844.32 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:35 -5.1 62.0 -11.2 2.5 229 2.7 260 844.29 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:30 -5.5 59.7 -12.1 1.1 253 2.6 257 844.35 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:25 -6.6 66.7 -11.8 0.4 175 1.3 282 844.39 0.2 0.00
2022-12-08 22:20 -6.0 63.0 -11.9 1.7 284 2.8 269 844.40 0.2 0.00
CIRA

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Use of mixture-model track clustering to interpret tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts

October 31, 2019 10:00 am
CIRA Director’s Conference Room

Presented by: Alex Kowaleski

Hosted by: Dr. Kate Musgrave, CIRA

Penn State University


Ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones provide a wealth of data for operational forecasters and researchers, but fully utilizing the data remains a challenge. Regression mixture-model clustering is demonstrated as a method to partition tropical cyclone ensemble forecasts into a small number of groups based on track. Clustering facilitates the exploration of storm evolution and hazards (e.g. storm surge) associated with each track grouping.

Mixture-model clustering is first applied to partition an ensemble of 72 simulations of Hurricane Sandy (2012) into six clusters based on storm track. After clustering, the structural evolution of Sandy is examined in the four most populous clusters. Sandy undergoes a warm seclusion extratropical transition in each analyzed cluster, with extratropical transition timing the clearest difference between clusters. Inter-cluster differences are smaller, but still relevant, when extratropical transition is analyzed relative to the landfall time of each simulation.

Track clustering is next applied to simulations of Hurricane Irma (2017) to study storm surge hazard. Each of 51 WRF ensemble members, initialized five and two days before Irma’s Florida landfalls, is used to drive a corresponding ADCIRC ocean simulation.  Irma’s tracks in the WRF simulations are then partitioned into clusters; inundation volume and inundation probability from ADCIRC are examined for each cluster. The inundation results among clusters show how track clustering can augment probabilistic hazard forecasts by elucidating hazard scenarios and variability across a dynamical ensemble.