NSF AI-Ready Testbed for Tropical Cyclones: Planning the Expansion of NOAA’s Hurricane and Ocean Testbed


Bridging Artificial Intelligence Research and Operational Hurricane Forecasting

NSF Award: IIS-2509835

PI: Kate Musgrave  |  Co-PI: Imme Ebert-Uphoff

Colorado State University – Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)
August 15, 2025 – July 31, 2027

View NSF Award Page

Jump to: Background · Objectives · Team · Core Activities · Highlights · Partners

Background

  • The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) established the
    Hurricane and Ocean Testbed (HOT) in 2021.
  • HOT was developed to test new models and products to improve hurricane forecasts, but it was not designed to handle artificial intelligence (AI) models.
  • This creates a disconnect between AI researchers developing promising models and the operational community that could benefit from them.

NOAA Hurricane and Ocean Testbed collaboration space showing isolated cloud environment, technical experimentation, development area, and collaboration area
William Lapenta Laboratory, the HOT testbed facility at NOAA-NWS.

Project Objectives

Enable operational AI evaluation

Plan the expansion of NOAA’s Hurricane and Ocean Testbed so artificial intelligence models can be evaluated using operational forecasting standards, workflows, and metrics.

Bridge research and operations

Connect AI researchers with operational hurricane forecasters to align scientific innovation with real-world forecasting needs, constraints, and decision-making processes.

Improve forecasts for societal benefit

Advance hurricane prediction capability in support of public safety and resilience, consistent with NSF’s mission to promote national health, prosperity, and welfare.


Project Team

Interdisciplinary research team with expertise in hurricanes, artificial intelligence,
risk communication, and research-to-operations transitions.

Colorado State University – Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA)

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)

NOAA – National Hurricane Center (NHC) / Hurricane and Ocean Testbed


Core Activities

The project is organized around two complementary activities that together support the planning and design of an AI-ready expansion of NOAA’s Hurricane and Ocean Testbed.

1) Connect AI researchers to the HOT testbed

Enable guest AI researchers to evaluate models within NOAA’s Hurricane and Ocean Testbed using operational workflows and standards.

  • Invite guest AI researchers and serve as the liaison to the testbed.
  • Develop a tiered test protocol for AI models.
  • Identify AI infrastructure needs for expansion.
  • Extract insights from model performance.

2) Prepare expansion of the HOT testbed

Convene stakeholders to define requirements and produce a practical plan for expanding HOT into an AI-ready testbed.

  • Conduct meetings with testbed users and operational partners.
  • Hold a workshop to design an AI-ready expansion framework.
  • Develop an expansion plan and implementation roadmap.
  • Assess which elements generalize to other testbeds.
NOAA Hurricane and Ocean Testbed collaboration space showing isolated cloud environment, technical experimentation, development area, and collaboration area
Key aspects for expansion of HOT into an AI-Ready Testbed.
Changes and activities needed to expand the HOT are shown in red.

Highlights & Impact

This project is already contributing to advances in AI-enabled tropical cyclone forecasting through collaborations, peer-reviewed research, and public engagement.

Collaboration with Google DeepMind

Our team is collaborating with Google DeepMind to improve tropical cyclone forecasts using artificial intelligence.

Operations-based evaluation of AI weather prediction models

Our team evaluated artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models for tropical cyclones using operational forecasting standards.


Partners & Sponsors

Partners: 

Funding Sponsor: