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Christman Field Latest Observations
Select Units
Date Time
MST
Temp
°F
RH
%
DewPt
°F
Wind
mph
Dir
°
Gust
mph
Dir
°
Press
in Hg
Solar
W/m^2
Prec
in
2023-01-31 22:40 9.3 76.1 3.3 4.2 333 7.4 333 24.900 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:35 8.8 78.1 3.4 4.6 1 5.6 345 24.901 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:30 10.8 76.4 4.8 2.3 288 3.2 288 24.900 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:25 11.1 76.2 5.1 0.5 260 1.9 260 24.901 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:20 11.5 75.5 5.2 2.1 217 3.1 261 24.898 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:15 10.1 78.5 4.8 2.4 266 4.2 259 24.899 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:10 10.6 78.0 5.1 2.2 216 4.9 244 24.900 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:05 10.3 78.3 4.9 3.1 247 3.8 248 24.899 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:00 9.5 80.2 4.6 4.5 219 5.5 255 24.897 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:55 11.1 76.3 5.1 4.2 262 8.2 255 24.896 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:50 9.0 86.9 5.9 5.5 251 8.9 253 24.898 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:45 5.8 84.0 2.0 3.7 265 5.0 247 24.899 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:40 6.2 83.5 2.2 3.5 259 4.4 247 24.897 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:35 5.7 85.8 2.4 2.7 317 3.5 316 24.896 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:30 5.3 84.5 1.7 3.1 299 4.3 261 24.899 0.1 0.00
2023-01-31 21:25 5.2 84.3 1.5 2.7 248 4.3 237 24.901 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:20 5.3 82.4 1.1 1.8 249 3.2 249 24.899 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:15 4.7 83.7 0.9 0.8 286 2.1 286 24.897 0.1 0.00
2023-01-31 21:10 4.9 82.6 0.7 1.8 343 2.4 351 24.898 0.1 0.00
2023-01-31 21:05 4.9 82.2 0.7 3.0 351 3.7 310 24.900 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:00 5.1 80.8 0.5 3.2 310 3.9 326 24.900 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:55 6.6 79.4 1.6 3.4 326 4.5 345 24.900 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:50 7.8 78.0 2.3 3.6 1 4.2 4 24.895 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:45 7.3 82.0 3.0 2.6 350 3.0 351 24.895 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:40 5.6 83.8 1.8 2.1 288 2.8 299 24.897 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:35 5.8 78.4 0.5 2.5 231 4.7 337 24.895 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:30 6.4 82.6 2.3 4.9 337 5.8 349 24.894 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:25 5.7 82.4 1.5 3.5 11 4.8 11 24.892 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:20 5.8 81.1 1.3 2.3 356 3.8 12 24.889 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:15 6.4 79.5 1.4 2.1 66 3.4 252 24.889 0.0 0.00
Date Time
MST
Temp
°C
RH
%
DewPt
°C
Wind
m/s
Dir
°
Gust
m/s
Dir
°
Press
hPa
Solar
W/m^2
Prec
mm
2023-01-31 22:40 -12.6 76.1 -15.9 1.9 333 3.3 333 843.20 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:35 -12.9 78.1 -15.9 2.1 1 2.5 345 843.24 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:30 -11.8 76.4 -15.1 1.0 288 1.4 288 843.19 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:25 -11.6 76.2 -15.0 0.2 260 0.9 260 843.24 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:20 -11.4 75.5 -14.9 1.0 217 1.4 261 843.16 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:15 -12.2 78.5 -15.1 1.1 266 1.9 259 843.17 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:10 -11.9 78.0 -15.0 1.0 216 2.2 244 843.20 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:05 -12.0 78.3 -15.0 1.4 247 1.7 248 843.19 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 22:00 -12.5 80.2 -15.2 2.0 219 2.5 255 843.12 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:55 -11.6 76.3 -14.9 1.9 262 3.7 255 843.06 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:50 -12.8 86.9 -14.5 2.5 251 4.0 253 843.13 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:45 -14.6 84.0 -16.7 1.7 265 2.2 247 843.17 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:40 -14.4 83.5 -16.5 1.5 259 2.0 247 843.12 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:35 -14.6 85.8 -16.5 1.2 317 1.5 316 843.06 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:30 -14.8 84.5 -16.8 1.4 299 1.9 261 843.18 0.1 0.00
2023-01-31 21:25 -14.9 84.3 -16.9 1.2 248 1.9 237 843.23 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:20 -14.8 82.4 -17.2 0.8 249 1.4 249 843.16 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:15 -15.2 83.7 -17.3 0.4 286 0.9 286 843.11 0.1 0.00
2023-01-31 21:10 -15.1 82.6 -17.4 0.8 343 1.1 351 843.16 0.1 0.00
2023-01-31 21:05 -15.1 82.2 -17.4 1.3 351 1.6 310 843.23 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 21:00 -14.9 80.8 -17.5 1.4 310 1.7 326 843.21 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:55 -14.1 79.4 -16.9 1.5 326 2.0 345 843.21 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:50 -13.5 78.0 -16.5 1.6 1 1.9 4 843.03 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:45 -13.7 82.0 -16.1 1.2 350 1.3 351 843.05 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:40 -14.7 83.8 -16.8 1.0 288 1.3 299 843.11 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:35 -14.6 78.4 -17.5 1.1 231 2.1 337 843.04 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:30 -14.2 82.6 -16.5 2.2 337 2.6 349 843.00 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:25 -14.6 82.4 -16.9 1.5 11 2.2 11 842.94 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:20 -14.5 81.1 -17.1 1.0 356 1.7 12 842.83 0.0 0.00
2023-01-31 20:15 -14.2 79.5 -17.0 0.9 66 1.5 252 842.84 0.0 0.00
CIRA

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

Musgrave, Kate

Kate Musgrave


Job Title:

Research Scientist/Scholar III

Email Address:

Phone Number:


970-491-8382

Mailing Addresss:


Kate Musgrave
Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
1375 Campus Delivery
Fort Collins, CO 80523-1375

Office Location:


CIRA Room 40

The mean absolute error of the official tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) shows limited evidence of improvement over the past two decades. This result has sometimes erroneously been used to conclude that little or no progress has been made in the TC intensity guidance models. This article documents statistically significant improvements in operational TC intensity guidance over the past 24 years (1989–2012) in four tropical cyclone basins (Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and Southern Hemisphere). Errors from the best available model have decreased at 1%–2% yr−1 at 24–72 h, with faster improvement rates at 96 and 120 h. Although these rates are only about one-third to one-half of the rates of reduction of the track forecast models, most are statistically significant at the 95% level. These error reductions resulted from improvements in statistical–dynamical intensity models and consensus techniques that combine information from statistical–dynamical and dynamical models. The reason that the official NHC and JTWC intensity forecast errors have decreased slower than the guidance errors is because in the first half of the analyzed period, their subjective forecasts were more accurate than any of the available guidance. It is only in the last decade that the objective intensity guidance has become accurate enough to influence the NHC and JTWC forecast errors.


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