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Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
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Search CIRA Website x
Colorado State University
  • Home
  • Welcome & About
    • About CIRA
      • Jobs
      • Letter from Christian Kummerow:
      • Map & Directions
      • Organizational Structure
      • Reports
      • Room Schedules
      • Staff Directory
      • Strategic Plan
      • Vision & Mission Statement
    • Themes
      • Climate and Weather Processes
      • Competitive Projects
      • Data Assimilation
      • Data Distributions
      • Education and Outreach
      • Modeling Systems Research
      • NOAA Projects
      • Satellite Algorithm Development, Training and Education
      • Societal and Economic Impact Studies
    • Collaborative Groups
      • Colorado Climate Center
      • National Park Service
      • Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch
  • Teams
    • Colorado Teams:
      • NOAA/Earth System Research Lab (ESRL) – Boulder, CO
      • Air Quality – Fort Collins, CO
      • Atmospheric Science (ATS) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Carbon – Fort Collins, CO
      • CIRA Software Engineering Group (CSEG) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Data Assimilation (DA) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Data Processing Centers (DPC) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Independent – Fort Collins, CO
      • MetSat – Fort Collins, CO
      • Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch (RAMMB) – Fort Collins, CO
      • Training – Fort Collins, CO
      • Tropical Cyclone – Fort Collins, CO
    • Other Location Teams:
      • National Hurricane Center – Miami, FL
      • NESDIS Environmental Applications Team (NEAT) – College Park, MD
      • NWS/Meteorological Development Laboratory (MDL) – Silver Spring, MD
      • NWS/Aviation Weather Center (AWC) – Kansas City, MO
      • Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO-Training) – Kansas City, MO
  • News & Events
    • News
      • CIRA Administration News
      • Magazines
      • Reports
    • Events
      • Conferences
      • Seminars
  • Research & Publications
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    • Imagery
      • Air Quality Research
        • Improve
        • VIEWS
      • CIRA Algorithm Testbed
      • CIRA Weather Station
      • RAMMB SLIDER
    • Data
      • CloudSat Data Processing Center
      • ECMWF Nature Run
      • RAMSDIS Online
        • GOES-West / GOES-East
        • Synthetic Forecast Imagery
        • Tropical Imagery
        • Suomi NPP VIIRS Imagery
  • Contact Us
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Search CIRA Website x
Christman Field Latest Observations
Date Time
MST
Temp
°F
RH
%
DewPt
°F
Wind
mph
Dir
°
Gust
mph
Dir
°
Press
in Hg
Solar
W/m^2
Prec
in
2021-04-22 19:40 41.9 69.8 32.8 3.8 335 4.6 334 0.000 0.0 0.00
2021-04-22 19:35 41.5 72.6 33.3 4.1 332 4.7 327 0.000 0.0 0.00
2021-04-22 19:30 41.7 73.5 33.9 1.4 319 3.6 319 0.000 0.0 0.00
2021-04-22 19:25 41.8 73.4 33.9 2.6 333 4.9 313 0.000 0.0 0.00
2021-04-22 19:20 44.6 68.4 34.8 1.9 71 3.8 109 0.000 0.0 0.00
2021-04-22 19:15 45.2 66.4 34.7 2.3 109 3.4 124 0.000 0.1 0.00
2021-04-22 19:10 45.3 65.7 34.5 3.1 119 4.1 130 0.000 0.2 0.00
2021-04-22 19:05 45.4 66.0 34.7 2.1 137 3.5 137 0.000 0.5 0.00
2021-04-22 19:00 45.5 64.8 34.4 2.5 162 3.9 161 0.000 1.1 0.00
2021-04-22 18:55 45.9 65.2 34.9 4.0 160 5.3 146 0.000 2.3 0.00
2021-04-22 18:50 46.1 63.7 34.5 3.7 131 4.6 152 0.000 3.7 0.00
2021-04-22 18:45 46.0 63.2 34.2 3.8 158 6.0 178 0.000 5.6 0.00
2021-04-22 18:40 46.2 64.6 34.9 4.2 162 5.4 179 0.000 7.9 0.00
2021-04-22 18:35 46.7 64.2 35.2 5.8 169 7.7 170 0.000 11.0 0.00
2021-04-22 18:30 47.0 62.7 34.9 5.7 168 7.6 163 0.000 14.2 0.00
2021-04-22 18:25 47.3 62.5 35.1 5.6 163 8.8 166 0.000 17.3 0.00
2021-04-22 18:20 47.4 61.6 34.9 7.1 153 9.5 153 0.000 22.8 0.00
2021-04-22 18:15 47.6 62.2 35.3 6.6 151 9.2 158 0.000 30.1 0.00
2021-04-22 18:10 47.9 61.2 35.1 7.3 154 10.5 151 0.000 41.1 0.00
2021-04-22 18:05 48.0 59.5 34.6 5.8 137 8.5 152 0.000 56.0 0.00
2021-04-22 18:00 48.0 59.7 34.6 7.0 140 10.7 148 0.000 79.1 0.00
2021-04-22 17:55 47.9 58.9 34.2 8.2 134 11.6 148 0.000 63.4 0.00
2021-04-22 17:50 48.2 59.4 34.7 9.3 145 13.5 171 0.000 56.8 0.00
2021-04-22 17:45 48.7 58.9 34.9 10.4 163 13.9 165 0.000 59.1 0.00
2021-04-22 17:40 49.2 58.8 35.4 10.0 166 16.0 170 0.000 98.9 0.00
2021-04-22 17:35 49.3 58.3 35.3 9.3 159 13.9 189 0.000 159.1 0.00
2021-04-22 17:30 49.4 59.1 35.7 13.1 180 18.3 152 0.000 125.8 0.00
2021-04-22 17:25 50.1 57.3 35.6 10.7 163 15.0 158 0.000 185.4 0.00
2021-04-22 17:20 50.6 57.1 36.0 10.2 142 15.6 153 0.000 240.9 0.00
2021-04-22 17:15 50.7 55.1 35.2 10.4 164 14.8 157 0.000 252.5 0.00
CIRA

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

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Is Tropical Cyclone Intensity Guidance Improving?


The mean absolute error of the official tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) shows limited evidence of improvement over the past two decades. This result has sometimes erroneously been used to conclude that little or no progress has been made in the TC intensity guidance models. This article documents statistically significant improvements in operational TC intensity guidance over the past 24 years (1989–2012) in four tropical cyclone basins (Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific, and Southern Hemisphere). Errors from the best available model have decreased at 1%–2% yr−1 at 24–72 h, with faster improvement rates at 96 and 120 h. Although these rates are only about one-third to one-half of the rates of reduction of the track forecast models, most are statistically significant at the 95% level. These error reductions resulted from improvements in statistical–dynamical intensity models and consensus techniques that combine information from statistical–dynamical and dynamical models. The reason that the official NHC and JTWC intensity forecast errors have decreased slower than the guidance errors is because in the first half of the analyzed period, their subjective forecasts were more accurate than any of the available guidance. It is only in the last decade that the objective intensity guidance has become accurate enough to influence the NHC and JTWC forecast errors.

Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere
Colorado State University
3925A West Laporte Ave.
Fort Collins, CO 80521

Phone: 970.491.8448
Fax: 970.491.8241

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