TC Hazards
TC Wind Speed Probabilities – Development and Updates
CIRA scientists played a major role in the development of the National Hurricane Center TC Wind Speed Probabilities, and have continued to support the NHC with updates and improvements to the underlying model, addition of new updates, and annual updates of error statistics and code adjustments for almost 2 decades. This work has been largely supported through the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), the Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT), and the NOAA Joint Technology Transfer Initiative (JTTI). CIRA has also worked with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) to adapt the WSP model for use in the JTWC AOR (W. Pacific, Indian Ocean, S. Hemisphere).
Select References:
- DeMaria, M., and Coauthors, 2013: Improvements to the Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probability Model. Wea. Forecasting, 28, 586–602, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-12-00116.1.
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Schumacher, A., 2016: Upgrades to the Operational Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Program, Final Report to the NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/jht/13-15reports/Final_Schumacher_JHT15.pdf.
- DeMaria, M., J. A. Knaff, R. Knabb, C. Lauer, C. R. Sampson, and R. T. DeMaria, 2009: A New Method for Estimating Tropical Cyclone Wind Speed Probabilities. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 1573–1591, https://doi.org/10.1175/2009WAF2222286.1
TC Wind Speed Probabilities – New WTCM-based WSPs (JTTI)
CIRA researchers are currently coordinating with NHC HSU and TSB in developing a new version of the WSP model that uses a more accurate methodology for estimating TC surface wind speed probabilities. In lieu of the current operational model’s wind radii estimation scheme, this new model explicitly models winds using the WTCM (TC surface wind model, see above). This allows for the use of a more sophisticated surface wind reduction scheme – and hence more accurate WSPs over land – as well as provides more flexibility in the types of outputs that can be generated from the WSP model. One example of a new WSP-based product we are currently testing are Wind Exceedance guidance, which can provide estimates of the most-likely and nearly-worst-case winds areas are likely to experience. The new version of the WSPs and Wind Exceedance are being created in near-real-time and can be found under the “wind speed prob.” tab on the CIRA TC Realtime website.
Funding: FY21 NOAA JTTI (Co-PIs: Schumacher & Musgrave)
