(image)The NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product uses both environmental and convective parameters to estimate the 24-hour probability of TC formation in the Atlantic and E. Pacific tropical basins for each 5 x 5 degree latitude/longitude sub-regions within its domain. Due to positive feedback from users at operational centers such as the National Hurricane Center and Tropical Prediction Center, the TCFP product domain was recently extended to include the Central and Western N. Pacific tropical basins. With the developmental and pre-operational phases complete, the extended product is set to be transitioned to operations by summer of 2008. Once transition is complete, the TCFP product (eg. from 12 August 2006 formation of WP10) will provide the only objective, real-time, routinely verified, probabilistic TC formation guidance available for these regions.
Recent research projects include:
- Expanding the NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product domain to include all global TC basins
- Extending the NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product forecast range from 24 hr to 48 hr and beyond
- Developing an automated tropical storm and hurricane watch/warning scheme from Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability model output
- Investigating the relationship between reduced hurricane track and forecast errors and potential reductions in warning distance and duration
- Exploring the response of pet care professionals during evacuations for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike (2008)