By the numbers: weather forecast benefits to energy

By Theresa Barosh | March 2025

Weather forecasts support the U.S. energy industry for both renewable production estimation and load demand forecasting — predicting electricity need. CIRA researchers pulled together some relevant numbers from past U.S. research:

Load Forecasting

Research in 2022 reported a potential decrease in operational costs by electricity generators from improving load forecasts, which depend on weather forecasts. With improved new GeoXO weather satellite capabilities, anticipated to launch in the 2030’s, benefits could be between $41 million and $136 million annually.

Hydroelectricity

In 2020, researchers considered the operational value of Global Forecast System derived hydrological forecasts for two 100MW hydroelectric plants, finding annual values in the range of $0.9 – $1.2 million dollars for each plant. Extrapolating this to all hydroelectric dams in the US with a load capacity over 100MW would suggest at least a value of $88 million annually.

Solar Electricity

Research conducted in 2016 through a partnership between NCAR and Xcel energy found that reduction in error of solar forecasts had an operational value of $11 million based on current levels of solar production, which is expected to increase to $45 million by 2040 as solar energy production capacity increases.

Weather information is used to make many different types of decisions throughout the energy sector, making it challenging for researchers to define the value of weather forecasts in economic terms.