SYNOPTIC SITUATION -- UPPER FLOW.
. . . . . As most forecasters are aware, upper flow over the central United States (U.S.) becomes relatively weak by July. However, the morning of 04 July 1995 found an exceptionally strong longwave trough centered over the central plains, with an intense jet as far south as New Mexico and western Texas. Maximum winds aloft were expected to be on the order of 60 - 80 kts in the central Plains by late afternoon. Upper analyses (e.g., 500mb) found several embedded shortwaves within the larger trough. The shortwaves of most importance to Missouri were an intense circulation with an associated Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) over northern portions of Kansas and Missouri at 1200 UTC, and an intense circulation over southeast Colorado with an associated 16 vorticity max.
. . . . . The longwave trough was deepening with time and advecting east-southeastward while the embedded Kansas shortwave was traveling northeast through the longitudinal flow. The combined effect of the two motions was a nearly due eastward propagation of the shortwave across northern Kansas, and a resulting eastward propagation of the support for the overnight convection (cold regions on the 10.7 um image). The shortwave ended up traveling eastward along a quasi-stationary surface front.