Summary and Conclusions
. . . In most cases, tornadic storms constitute a small subset of the thunderstorm activity occurring on a given tornado day. It is not always possible to identify these violent cells using Doppler radar alone. In the case of 04 July, a broader understanding of the evolving mesoscale situation might have increased lead-time somewhat for the Moberly storm.
. . . Thunderstorms alter their behavior appreciably upon interaction with other storms and pre-existing boundaries. Knowing that such features are present in the environment can provide the forecaster with valuable insight to supplement radar observations during tense severe weather warning operations. Doppler radar provides the necessary real-time information about the evolving thunderstorm structure. High resolution digital satellite imagery can provide a 'quick-glance' means for understanding why the storms are developing and evolving as they are. Derived analyses can be used to quantify the imagery.
. . . The storms which produced tornadoes in this case were thunderstorms which became involved in interactions with other storms. The WSR-88D radar did reveal a mesocyclone prior to both tornadoes. Indeed, this was the key to the warnings issued. However, according to a recent study, only about 50 percent of all mesocyclonic storms produce tornadoes, and among those storms, only about one-third produce strong (F2, or greater) tornadoes. It is important to reiterate that no tornado occurred in either the Linneus or the Moberly storms until storm interactions had taken place.
. . . The role of very-small-scale interactions is unknown. Though not dynamically similar, one is tempted to think of a deep, unstable snow field on an avalance-prone slope. Some tiny factor, such as a small stone, or loud noise, can provide a trigger which then allows the full potential of the environment to be realized. What is perhaps diconcerting in the case of the Moberly interaction (as well as that which occurred with the Hesston, Kansas F5 tornado) is the implication that sudden changes can occur on time scales much shorter than previously associated with the evolution of such events. This case illustrates not only the utility of using Doppler radar and satellite together, but also demonstrates the need for these data sets to be made available at time increments much shorter than are currently available in NWS offices today.