Developed in collaboration with CIRA scientists, the Monte Carlo wind speed probability (MCWSP) model estimates the probabilities of 34-kt (39-mph), 50-kt (58-mph), and 64-kt (74-mph) wind speeds occurring at a given point within the next 12, 24, 36, …, 120 hours. For each tropical cyclone, the MCWSP model generates 1,000 forecast realizations by sampling from track and intensity forecast errors from the last 5 years and determines the wind radii of each realization using a simple climatology and persistence scheme. Wind speed probabilities are then derived at each point in the model domain by counting the number of realizations where the wind speed exceeds the threshold of interest relative to the total number of realizations.

Since the implementation of the MCWSP at the National Hurricane Center in 2006, replacing the Strike Probability Program, members of RAMMB at CIRA have continued to work on improving the product algorithm and developing new applications of wind speed probabilities. This discussion will highlight some of the more recent algorithm improvements and hurricane impacts-related applications.

A graphical user interface called the Hurricane Landfall Probability Application (HuLPA) was developed for the National Hurricane Center. HuLPA allows forecasters to easily visualize output from the Monte Carlo Wind Speed Probability Program. It also calculates a number of parameters requested by forecasters that are not directly available from the MCWSP standard set of products. These include time of arrival information on gale and hurricane force winds, objective guidance on where to issue coastal watches and warnings, and probability information at user-specified locations. This discussion will include a brief demonstration of HuLPA.