Development of a probabilistic topical cyclone prediction scheme
CSU Project #: 5-31289Sponsor: NOAA
Primary Investigator: Andrea Schumacher
Start Date: August 1st, 2011
End Date: July 31st, 2013
Objectives:
- not yet entered
- TC genesis represents an intensity forecasting challenge and is perhaps one of the more difficult stages of the tropical cyclone lifecycle to diagnose and predict. This project seeks to combine some of the strengths of both the NHC “in-house” scheme and the NESDIS Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability (TCFP) product to develop a storm-centric scheme for objectively identifying the probability of TC genesis (within 48-hours) in the North Atlantic basin.
- Tropical Cyclone (TC) forecasts affect risk mitigation activities of industry, public and governmental sectors and therefore supports directly NOAA’s Weather and Water mission goals.
Progress Reports:
CIRA Themes relevant to this project:
- Satellite Algorithm Development, Training and Education
