Improvements in Statistical Tropical Cyclone Forecast ModelsCSU Project #: 5-31278
Sponsor: Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT)
Primary Investigator: Dr. Renate Brummer
Start Date: July 1st, 2011
End Date: June 30th, 2013
- In this project, several improvements are proposed to the operational Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) and the Logistic Growth Equation Model (LGEM). These improvements include the following: (1) Separating the persistence component of LGEM from the other inputs that are available throughout the forecast period, which allows the model to be run to any forecast length and the assimilation of the observed intensity up to the forecast time.
- Developing versions of the SHIPS and LGEM models specifically for the Gulf of Mexico region.
- Improving the databases used to develop SHIPS and LGEM through use of the NCEP’s new coupled reanalysis system.
- Develop extended range versions of climatology and persistence models for track and intensity to be used as baselines for evaluation of other more general models beyond 5 days. A trajectory approach will be used for the new baseline models.
CIRA Themes relevant to this project:
- Satellite Algorithm Development, Training and Education