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Predictability of nonlinear dynamical systems is related to ensemble forecasting. In turn, ensemble forecasting is an essential component of ensemble data assimilation, making a firm link between ensemble data assimilation and predictability. The chaotic nature of nonlinear dynamical systems is typically understood as a predictability limit. However, if one accepts the non-deterministic nature of weather and climate, the stability of strange attractors may be an indication of non-deterministic predictability.
We are interested in research dealing with both deterministic and non-deterministic predictability.
This theme is addressed in the following projects:
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