Executive Summary

The TASET project was funded by the Joint Fire Science Program to develop a structured analysis of smoke management and recommend specific developments for advancing the state of science in this field.

We approached this problem by first developing a task-oriented breakdown of the smoke management issue. We did this by developing a structured analysis, using existing information from an assortment of sources, including the EPA interim Guidelines for Wildland Smoke, the Forest Service National Strategic Plan: Modeling and Data Systems for Wildland Fire and Air Quality, EPA regional haze regulations, and similar documents. The Forest Service's National Strategic Plan (Sandberg 1999) lists over 45 strategies for work in smoke management. The TASET effort used these strategies while attempting to focus them for potential support by the Joint Fire Sciences Program.

The structured analysis was conducted by determining specific information needed to take actions required to manage smoke. Further, we asked what tools, primarily models and data sets, are used to provide this information. The analysis resulted in the following breakdown of smoke management actions:

strategic planning, tactical planning and permitting, operations, and evaluation and monitoring.

Following development of this task breakdown, we designed a survey focusing on the identified tools asking respondents about the utility of these tools and their suggested priorities for improving them. The survey was provided to over 200 fire and air quality professionals by both conventional mail and e-mail. Further, the survey was published on the CIRA smoke & fire web page. This led to over 50 total responses.

Finally, based on the structured analysis and the results of the survey, a Workshop was held at Colorado State University in February 2000. The workshop provided 50 key players in the smoke management field the opportunity to interact and discuss development of technically advanced tools for smoke management.

A specific set of recommendations has developed as a result. These recommendations are presented in a format we believe will be helpful to the Joint Fire Sciences Program. This format is a short (one-page) description for each specific proposed activity, including the Subject, Need, Research and Development Question, Anticipated Cost, Anticipated Duration, Anticipated Product, and its linkage to National Strategic Plan. It is anticipated that the JFSP Board will find these results useful for discussion of potential funding opportunities.

Ten specific recommendations for research activities are listed below.

TASET Project Recommendation, #1

- Strategic Level -

Subject: Fire community participation in Regional Air Quality Modeling Consortia

Need: As air resources have become more highly regulated, the sophistication and complexity of models used for strategic planning (SIPS and land management planning) have increased. Specifically in support of current regulatory issues, regional haze, ozone, and PM2.5, air regulators and their publics have developed regionally oriented consortia to help cope with technical complexity and the interstate nature of many of these issues. For example, in the Western US, the Western Regional Air Partnership (WRAP) established a fire emissions subgroup and are in the process of initiating a regional modeling consortium. Models such as EPA's Models3/CMAQ being used for the next round of SIP revisions, require super computer computing power and specialized inventories of emissions. Information, skills and costs needed to operate these models is greater than any land manager can possibly afford. Output from such models routinely requires skilled technical specialist not available to the fire community. In time, it will be clear that the fire community must participate with these regional consortia. Rather than having to accept the models being used at that time, we recommend initiating a research presence to assure final models are appropriate for dealing with fire and smoke. Additionally, fire managers will benefit from improved weather and smoke forecasts provided by next generation models. Skilled modelers with the correct modeling tools available to them may provide weather simulations for fire danger and behavior, perhaps providing fine scale forecasts days in advance. In the Pacific Northwest a regional modeling consortium has been started for this purpose. Shared funding costs can reduce single party costs; joint planning products will assure usefulness. Participants and benefactors of this current, fledgling consortium include the USDA Forest Service, EPA, and the State of Washington.

Research and Development Question: The concept of regional modeling consortiums for meteorology and air quality appears both innovative and practical. It is suggested that support be provided through a system of competitive grants to develop such consortia as a proof of concept.

Anticipated Cost: $400,000 per year ($200,000 each for two consortia) for a two year period ($800,000 total).

Anticipated Duration: Two years, but on-going if concept is proved.

Anticipated Products: Two operating consortia, general technical report on consortium operations for evaluating value of concept.

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would implement six of the nine summary strategies. It would also support the following sub strategies P1:1,2,5; P2:2; P3:2,3;O1:1;O2:2,3; O3:1;M1:1, and M2:3.

 

TASET Project Recommendation, #2

- Strategic Level -

Subject: National Smoke and Visibility Conference

Need: Visibility as a scientific endeavor is technically complex, highly data reliant, intellectually challenging, populated with a very small group of scientific experts, and has undergone great change within the last decade. The new regional haze rules proposed by EPA will cause smoke managers to become increasingly involved in visibility issues. Smoke emissions will be regulated under this rule. Air quality regulators will be required to address smoke in state-level implementation of the regional haze rule. Unfortunately, however, there is sometimes little understanding between these communities. A single current reference document on smoke and visibility would be useful to all parties.

Research and Development Question: An up-to-date reference on visibility science and fire smoke could be produced through a national scientific conference on the issue. The reference would be a peer-reviewed formal conference proceeding document.

Anticipated Cost: $100,000

Anticipated Duration: 1 year

Anticipated Products: Peer-reviewed conference proceedings document.

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would support the following sub strategies: P2:1;P3:2,3; O1:5;O3:1;M1:1;M2:1,2,5; and M3:1,4.

TASET Project Recommendation, #3

- Strategic Level -

Subject: National Smoke Emissions Data Structure or Database System

Need: The new regulatory programs for PM2.5, ozone, and regional haze will require improved record keeping on fire emissions. These data will need to be accessible to many parties including the federal EPA, state air agencies, researchers, fire managers, and the interested public. Smoke emissions will also need to be available for use in regional scale modeling using such systems as the new EPA Models3/CMAQ. Data in such a system will need to be easy to up-date, provide for documentation of the sources of data, provide information on the quality of data, provide explicit geographic reference information, and allow data to be preprocessed for use in modeling.

Research and Development Question: A new smoke emissions inventory system is recommended for development. The system will incorporate all emissions species of relevance to air quality regulators and will be useful in modeling studies, state implementation plan (SIP) development, and regional planning. It will also be compatible with the EPA AIRS system but will be tailored for ease of use by fire practitioners.

Anticipated Cost: $150,000

Anticipated Duration: Three years

Anticipated Products: New data structure or database system for smoke emissions, user’s documentation and training, program code documentation, implementation/life cycle management plan for the finished system.

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would implement one of the nine summary strategies, National Fire and Air Quality Information Database. It would also support the following sub strategies: P1:3,5; P2:2; P3:3,4; O1:1,3; O2:3; O3:2; M1:4; and M2:3

 

TASET Project Recommendation, # 4

- Strategic Level -

Subject: Remote Sensing for Fuels and Fire Area Emissions Inventories

Need: There is a recognized need for fuels inventory at state, regional, and national scales. Such information as amount of fuel loading, fuel temperature, and fuel moisture would be extremely useful in calculation of potential for fire. For emissions calculation, accurate estimates of fire area and fuel consumed are also needed. Meaningful spatial resolution for this information would be 100 meters or less. Time resolution for this information would be at several days to daily resolution. New multi-spectral sensor/platform combinations are becoming available in the near future with the potential to provide significantly enhanced information for fire managers.

Research and Development Question: Remote sensing products, preferably from space based platforms, could solve fuels inventory and classification needs if spectral, spatial and temporal resolution were high enough. This information when coupled with burn area estimates can give regional to national emissions estimates for all fires. To achieve this level of information it will require new techniques for data collection, management, and analysis. Although technology may not exist at the present time to reach the level of spatial and temporal resolution we desire, work to develop the framework for methodologies/processes will allow both useful products now and improved technology management as remote sensing advances as a practice.

Anticipated Cost: $200,000 per year

Anticipated Duration: Five years

Anticipated Products: Improved remote sensing data analysis algorithms for fuel inventory and fire assessments, linkage of remote sensing information to emissions calculations

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would implement one of the nine summary strategies, National Fire and Air Quality Information Database. It would also support the following sub strategies: P1:3,5; P2:2; P3:3,4; O1:1,3; O2:3; O3:2; M1:4; and M2:3.

TASET Project Recommendation, # 5

- Strategic and Tactical Level -

Subject: Fire Gaming System.

Need: Air Quality regulators need to know how much wildland and agricultural burning is being planned and to what extent this use of fire represents a tradeoff of emissions from wildfire. They also need to keep track of which locations are planned for fire treatment, which locations actually were treated, and to what extent the planned parameters for the treatment were actually achieved.

Research and Development Question: A simple model is needed to estimate the emissions contribution made by alternative fire practices to ambient air quality, to quantify the differential emissions resulting from the use of alternative fire management practices and the implications of each of these on ambient air quality. The functionality of the Models3/CMAQ system provides all of this capability but does it using state of the science computer models that are very complex and require vast data resources. The proposed Fire Gaming System would include much of the Models3/CMAQ functionality but would utilize simpler models and less complex data inputs.

Anticipated Cost: $225,000:

Anticipated Duration: Three years, $75,000/yr.

Anticipated Products: Fire Gaming Model for use by air quality regulators in development of SIPs as well as more refined planning documents.

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would implement two of the nine summary strategies, Air quality impact assessment, and Emission tradeoffs and determination of natural visibility. It would also support the following sub strategies: P2:2,4; M1:3,4; and M2:3.

TASET Project Recommendation, # 6

- Tactical Level -

Subject: CalMet/CalPuff Smoke Management Version

Need: Although some simple screening models such as SASEM are adequate for many smoke screening and permitting situations, there is a recognized need for models that address multiple fires and complex terrain. Two models, NSF Puff and TSARS Plus (among others) were developed in answer to this need. NSF Puff, developed by USDA Forest Service, incorporates interesting approaches and an excellent user interface, but does not represent the state of the science, as it must for it to receive broader acceptance in the air quality community. TSARS Plus, developed by USDOI, although incorporating a complex terrain diagnostic wind-field model driving gaussian puffs for pollutant dispersion much like CalMet/CalPuff, has no user community and its user’s interface is not state of the science. In the past several years many modelers, including the Interagency Working Group on Air Quality modeling (IWAQM) have come to view EPA's modeling system CalMet/CalPuff as being the most useful for air quality regulatory purposes in complex terrain. EPA, at their next Modeling Conference scheduled for early July 2000 will propose the system for approval as a 'guideline' model. Thus, it represents the most likely potential candidate for a nationally accepted smoke management model.

Research and Development Question: The CALMET/CALPUFF models are for most intents and purposes nationally accepted as regulatory tools, have been extensively peer-reviewed, use current dispersion techniques, and are capable of simulating smoke dispersion from multiple fires in complex terrain and operate under MS Windows. These models are more complex than NSF Puff and other currently used smoke management tools, but are also much more acceptable to air quality modelers and state regulators. A new user’s interface needs to be developed for CalMet/CalPuff that will make it practical for use by fire managers and planners; building on the experience of NSF Puff, TSARS Plus and other efforts.

Anticipated Cost: $150,000

Anticipated Duration: Two years

Anticipated Products: New version CALMET/CALPUFF user’s interface and results processor to make the system practical for smoke management (coping successful aspects of NSF Puff), programming code documentation, model user’s training materials, and technical paper.

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would implement one of the nine summary strategies, Air quality impact assessment. It would also support the following sub strategies: P2:2,4; O2:2; O3:1; and M3:2,4.

 

TASET Project Recommendation, # 7

- Tactical and Operational Level -

Subject: Nationalized Screening Model / Simple Approach Smoke Estimation Model (SASEM) Upgrade

 

Need: There is a recognized need for a simple to use smoke dispersion model that can be used to plan and permit fires. The model must be easily usable by fire managers, requiring data that is readily at hand, and be operable on common computers. Additionally the model must be understandable and approved by air quality regulators who see it as reliable to predict potential impacts to ambient air quality standards and visibility. At present the model used by more states as a screening model than any other is the Simple Approach Smoke Estimation Model (SASEM). SASEM is accepted as a regulatory tool in Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Idaho and has some usage in other states. Originally developed in 1986 by the Bureau of Land Management, the model now needs updating both in programming and technical approaches. It, or a successor- screening model, also needs to be formally reviewed and accepted through

EPA’s modeling clearinghouse to insure regulatory acceptance.

Research and Development Question: Develop a newer generation screening tool for single and multiple fires that requires input readily available to fire managers and planners and results in conservative (but believable) estimates of ground level particulate concentrations and visibility impacts at selected sites. Functionality of existing SASEM should be incorporated into the product and expanded.

Anticipated Cost: $85,000

Anticipated Duration: 1 to 1.5 year projects.

Anticipated Products: New generation SASEM or successor screening model, using manual, code documentation, technical paper and materials to submit model to EPA clearing house process.

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would implement one of the nine summary strategies, Air quality impact assessment. It would also support the following sub strategies: P1:1; P2:2; P3:4,5; O1:1,3; O2:1,2,4,5; and M3:1,4.

TASET Project Recommendation, # 8

- Operations/Evaluation Level -

Subject: On-site Fire Emissions Verification

Need: Although fire emissions can be modeled it is now impossible to accurately measure emissions at the fire site to verify model results. Accurate measurements of emissions at fire sites will become important for regional haze assessments and determining compliance with mitigation plans for non-attainment areas. For example, one extremely useful measurement would be the total amount of PM2.5 emitted during the course of the fire. Currently, some fire managers are attempting to measure particulate concentrations at fires and near fires using portable nephelometers. The limitations of these devices are well known; inability to provide accurate measurements at high concentrations and point rather than spatial measurements being two often cited. New techniques and technologies need to be explored to meet this need.

Research and Development Question: LIDARS and short-band radar are technologies that could be investigated to produce fire emission species concentrations and plume volume measurements to calculate total emissions from fires. Advances in electronics and data processing would allow such devices to be made field rugged and portable. The activity would be to develop a new generation of on-site fire emissions measurement devices whose information output could be used, perhaps in conjunction with a new generation of emissions models, to accurately measure total fire emissions in a manner that will be acceptable to air quality regulators.

Anticipated Cost: $250,000 per year

Anticipated Duration: Three years

Anticipated Products: Research/production prototype instrument for on-site fire emissions measurements, technical papers on instrument theory and performance, detailed design specifications, guidelines for instrument usage.

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would support the following sub strategies: M1:3; M2:5; and M3:4,5.

 

TASET Project Recommendation, # 9

-Evaluation Level -

Subject: Back-Trajectory Modeling and Filter Analysis for Fire Smoke Contributions for Non-Attainment Areas

Need: In situations where it is uncertain as to the extent of the contribution of source to exceed of an air quality standard or guideline, back-trajectory models have been used to understand how much pollution has come from the source. Routinely measurements of ambient air quality are taken at the site of concern and a chemical/physical profile of the atmospheric contamination developed. Models which then "back calculate" where such pollution is most likely to have come from are then applied. The results of such back-trajectory analysis are often insightful and surprising. In areas of non-attainment for PM such techniques would allow an objective assessment of the contribution from fires at a particular location.

Research and Development Question: Back-trajectory modeling techniques previously employed by the USDOI National Park service could be adapted for use in fire situations. A method of carbon species analysis of air monitoring filters, that would be affordable (about $50 per analysis), will need to be developed (initial investigation by NPS already has begun on this issue) and applied. Using the filter analysis techniques and back-trajectory modeling techniques developed by NPS, it will be possible to objectively assess the contributions of wildland fire to non-attainment areas.

Anticipated Cost: $100,000 per year

Anticipated Duration: Three years

Anticipated Products: New generation back-trajectory models specialized for use in wildland fire assessments, new filter analysis techniques to analyze for fire contributions to ambient air quality, technical reference for wildland fire back-trajectory analysis in non-attainment areas.

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would support the following sub strategies: P2:1; O1:1; O3:1; M2:2,5; and M3:4,5.

TASET Project Recommendation, #10

- Evaluation Level -

Subject: Develop a method to identify the specific sources of organic carbon fine particulate material.

Need: The only absolute way to discriminate contributions from different types of burning, for example, forest fire from agricultural burning, from diesel engine emissions, from power plant emissions, and so forth, is by identifying an absolute chemical signature unique to that form of combustion. This chemical signature must, also, be present in sufficient quantities to allow measurement. The availability of such a forest fire tracer would help fire managers and air quality regulators distinguish specific contributions from fire to ambient air quality impacts.

Research and Development Question: Because particles in the atmosphere smaller than 10 and 2.5 micrometers impact human health and degrade visibility, they are monitored by regulatory agencies. In circumstances where concentrations of these particles are above ambient air quality standards, control strategies are invoked. The control strategies attempt to identify and control specific sources. However, in the case of fine particles, it is not easy to identify source contributions. These particles represent a complex mixture of ammonium sulfates, ammonium nitrates, crustal material (dust), and organic carbon, among other things. Distinguishing the sources of the organic particles is particularly difficult. However, preliminary studies have identified a number of candidate technologies, generally a class of by-products of the combustion of cellulose know as levoglucosan and associated compounds (Simoneit et.al. 1999). There are promising indications that levoglucosan will be able to identify unique chemical signatures associated with different types of wood combustion. These preliminary identifications need additional work most especially, field condition testing

Anticipated Cost: $150,000 for three years

Anticipated Duration: Three years of testing should be sufficient to identify unique chemical signatures associated with alternative combustion sources.

Anticipated Products: A chemical tracer capable of distinguishing different forms of wood combustion. The tracers provide the ability to identify the relative contributions of fire in different types vegetation complexes.

Link to National Strategic Plan: This funding would support the following sub strategies: P2:1; O1:1; O3:1; M2:2,5; and M3:4,5.

Simoneit, B.R.T, and others 1999 Levoglucosan, a tracer for celluose in biomass burning and atmospheric particles. Atmospheric Environment 33 173-182


Recommendations

Ten specific recommendations developed as a result of the TASET project are targeted to each of the smoke management task areas; strategic planning, tactical planning and permitting, operations, and evaluation. Project recommendations are summarized below and in the recommendation tables contained in Appendix A. In addition to listing the recommendations here, also include, below, short summaries of each recommendation in a format that the JFSP Board can use for discussion about future research they may chose to undertake.

The Forest Service National Strategic Plan (Sandberg et.al. 1999) recommended nine specific strategies for furthering modeling and data analysis for fire and air quality. They identified:

  1. Fuels & Fire Characterization;
  2. Emission modeling systems;
  3. Transport, dispersion, and secondary pollutant formation;
  4. Air quality impact assessment;
  5. Emissions tradeoffs and determinations of natural visibility;
  6. Impact and risk assessment of emissions from fires;
  7. Monitoring guidelines and protocols;
  8. National fire and air quality information database;
  9. Public information and protection.

TASET in recommending nine specific projects for Joint Fire Science Program consideration addresses all of these strategies, specifically enabling the six listed in boldface. However, the TASET recommendations are more specific, recommending for example, detailed specific approaches to accomplish them.

Strategic planning

The TASET project has confirmed that there is a pressing need for development of better and more coordinated planning tools to be used by both the fire community and air quality regulators. The task area where this is most pressing is in strategic planning. Strategic planning, especially for the development of State Implementation Plans (SIPs) as are required under the Clean Air Act will be receiving relatively greater attention in the coming decade because of new regional haze regulations and a proposed PM2.5 national ambient air quality standard. Supporting this effort is the number one priority recommendation from TASET.

Models required for SIP analysis share a number of characteristics that need not be reviewed here except to comment that they must meet stringent capability and acceptability requirements by the entire stakeholder community. This includes not only land managers and fire practitioners, but air quality managers, regulators, and scientists, industrial participants to clean air decision making and the interested public. Among major concerns is the realization that we all share one atmosphere. This atmosphere is linked physically & chemically, pollutants from industrial sources merge with those from natural sources, from the managed use of fire and all other human activity. One consequence of the introduction of all these pollutants means that it is necessary to consider both the natural hydrocarbon emissions from vegetation, other ozone precursors and smoke emissions in the same simulation models. Smoke can no longer be considered as a stand-alone pollutant, it must be considered in the context of all the other pollutants and their associated control strategies. In order to do this smoke management modeling needs to not be separated from but integrated with all other air quality modeling done for a SIP. The EPA developed Models3/Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) has been designed to accomplish this integration and comparative one atmosphere simulation. Unfortunately, running the Models3/CMAQ is an intensive and complex process requiring large, dynamic data inputs, a wide variety of staff with diverse and different backgrounds and capabilities and significant computational and communications infrastructures.

The first TASET recommendation (#1) does not call for development or application of this complex modeling approach to smoke and fire. Rather, we feel it is necessary for the fire research community to establish a continuing commitment and capability as a part of regional efforts to develop and apply Models3/CMAQ and similar complex, one-atmosphere, simulation systems. Thus, TASET recommends financial participation supporting participants in regional meteorological and air quality modeling consortia. These consortia are developing in support of air quality modeling requirements for ozone, regional haze and PM2.5 regulatory requirements. Our recommendation is to fund additional work in these locations to add fire and smoke considerations into the mix of source categories being studied.

Additional strategic planning needs involve supporting this complex model application.

Secondly, (#2), there is a need for a greater scientific understanding of the nature of the relationships between fire, visibility and fine particulate. Much of this understanding is developing as a result of an active research community but it is accumulating in a disparate variety of journals that are not always read by the diverse workers in the community. Since the development and application of complex air quality simulation models calls for the merging of this disparate science along with various more operationally oriented issues, we propose the convening a Visibility & Fire Conference. This Conference would bring together internationally recognized authorities in visibility and smoke to make invited presentations, submit contributed papers, and develop a book.

Third, (#3), complex models require detailed emissions inventories. A detailed emission inventory linked to vegetation models, GIS, fire models, fire occurrence, and fire planning. Because the model requires detailed emissions information, this inventory needs to include VOC and PM2.5 speciation to the extent possible. Since the land management community has expended considerable effort in developing tools to predict vegetation dynamics, this systems needs to be fully integrated with such emerging systems.

Fourth, (#4), there is a need to advance the capabilities of remote sensing tools and technologies to provide improved input data from model applications and to evaluate the validity of model estimates. Remote sensing tools, are needed to identify vegetation dynamics, fuel condition, fire activity and smoke plumes from routine satellite observations. Advancing spectral and spatial resolution in emerging generation of new instruments hold promising potential to provide meaningful operational information.

Tactical Planning and Permitting

Much of the technology needed at the tactical planning and permitting level has actually been developed and is being employed in different locations at the present time. Thus, much of the need in this area is for standardization and national acceptance of preferred approaches.

The fifth TASET recommendation, (#5), actually supports both strategic and tactical planning efforts; however, its most pressing need is associated with tactical planning. One of the important functions the Models3/CMAQ system is the ability to run multiple and keep track of multiple scenarios, changes and alterations in complex input fields, such as emissions inventories, changes in model versions and presence and absence of alternative scientific formalisms, and a host of other details. Models3/CMAQ manages this complex record keeping via science and scenario "managers." This sort of functionality, tracking complex alternative maps of planned fire use, of historical and contemporary wildfire occurrence, of smoke management planed and accomplished, is needed by smoke managers. Thus, we recommend that a simplified, engineering (or gaming) version of the Models3/CMAQ applied to forest and agricultural smoke and fire is needed.

The sixth recommendation (#6) has applications in the operational as well as the tactical planning area. It supports efforts initiated by EPA and the federal land managers work on an activity known as IWAQM (Interagency Working Group on Air Quality Modeling). IWAQM has worked for nearly 10 years to standardize the application of air quality simulation models for applications in the complex mountainous terrain of the western United States. The primary focus of this activity has been the use of models for permitting new stationary sources of air pollution under the Prevention of Significant Deterioration component of the Clean Air Act. Through this process, a combined meteorological and dispersion models system, know as CalMet/CalPuff, has been recommended for these applications. Because this model system has received regulatory acceptance, it seems logical to recommend its use for smoke permitting and tactical applications. Application of CalMet/CalPuff to simulate smoke produced from various types of fire activity, is a high priority. However, currently, the system is considered too complex for routine application. Land managers have been advocating the application of a much simpler model know as NFSPuff. NFSPuff has decided advantages in terms of its user interface; however, it is not likely to achieve regulatory acceptance. Therefore, our recommendation is to develop a user interface for CalMet/CalPuff having the look & feel that is acceptable to smoke managers.

The seventh (#7) recommendation also has applications in the operational area as well as in tactical planning and permitting. We recommend that the existing tool SASEM be upgraded and approved as a national smoke management screening tool. SASEM has received wide acceptance as a screening tool for permitting prescribed burning. The term screening tool recognizes that the model has limitations in terms of dealing with complex terrain and associated plume behavior. EPA approves models for specialized application as screening tools. By this, they mean that the model can be used to project impact of an emission source with the assurance that the projection is conservative, namely that it over predicts impact. Thus, regulators can be assured that the fire is not likely to lead to violations of any air quality standards. SASEM is easy to use, is based on acknowledged technologies and should meet EPA's requirements for approval as a screening technique. This recommendation is to upgrade SASEM to operate efficiently in an MS Windows environment, reflect the latest emissions projection tools and work through EPA's procedure for formal acknowledgement of SASEM as a regulatory screening tool.

Monitoring and Evaluation

The eighth (#8) recommendation is to accurately measure emissions from a wide array of wildfire and prescribed fires. Current understanding of the emissions from forest fires is not sufficient to be introduced into the complex atmospheric chemistry models needed for SIP purposes. An improved characterization of the flux of gaseous and particulate emissions from different levels and types of fire, in diverse ecosystems will be necessary in the future. Both chemical and physical characterization of these emissions will be needed. A series of detailed experimental programs will be required in order to characterize these emissions.

The ninth (#9) recommendation calls for the development and use of back trajectory tools for the evaluation of smoke from forest fires. These techniques have proven useful in assessing the contribution of different sources to the final impact measured at receptors. They should prove useful for characterizing the downwind impacts on visibility and PM2.5 caused by significant fire events.

The tenth, and final recommendation, calls for research to develop a method to identify the specific sources of organic carbon fine particulate material. The only absolute way to discriminate the contribution that different types of burning, for example, forest fire from agricultural burning, from diesel engine emissions, from power plant emissions, and so forth, is by identifying an absolute chemical signature that is unique to that form of combustion. Preliminary studies have identified a number of candidate technologies to identify such unique chemical signatures, but they need additional work and most especially, field condition testing. The availability of a forest fire tracer will help fire managers as well as air quality regulators to distinguish specific contributions from fire to ambient air quality impacts.

 

Appendices

A--Recommendation Tables

Table A-1. TASET Project Recommendations: Strategic Level

Models or Tools

Recommended

Recommended

Information Source, Tool, or Model

Purpose and Need

Modifications Needed

Priority of Modification

Cost Estimation

Estimated Development Time

Fuels Information

Remote sensing

Gather information on fuels loading and condition at landscape scale

Information for fuel loading, fuel types, and conditions at 1 KM pixel resolution

HIGH

$200,000 per year (costs potentially lowered by cooperation with NASA, NOAA, DOI, and DOD)

Five years

Fuel Consumption Model

FBPS/BEHAVE

Simulations/

estimates of fuel amounts actually to be consumed

Improved projections of fuel consumption for emissions calculations

___

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Emissions Model

EPM/FOFEM

Simulations/

estimates of actual emissions

Improved projections of emissions for regional, state, forest, and district level planning; include emissions species/precursors critical to visibility and ozone

____

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Meteorology Data Source

Regional climatologies; NOAA AWIPS and USDA AWIPS

Provide information to run models in a prognostic mode

Improve access, work with AWIPS and NOAA Port technologies for data delivery at all organizational levels

 

 

 

 

MEDIUM

$100,000 a year

Two years to develop basic infrastructure for support strategy and demonstration project; suggest partnership with USDA World Outlook Board and NOAA Labs

Meteorology Models

MM5/RAMS and CALMET

Provides information to predict fire behavior/conformance with burn prescription; input files for dispersion models.

Needs wider access to regional scale simulations with information available to fire managers for long-term planning.

HIGH

$400,000 per year (combination with Dispersion Models)

Eight years (suggest "Smoke Estimation Tools (SETS) Grants Program," fund two $200,000 per year 2 year programs to establish regional smoke modeling centers.)

Dispersion Model

CMAQ (e.g. EPA MODELS 3) and CALPUFF

Provides basic information on how fire emissions will support state programs for PM2.5, regional haze, and ozone.

Needs wider access to regional scale simulations with information available to fire managers for long-term planning.

HIGH

$400,000 per year (combination with Meteorology Models)

See: Meteorology Models section

Evaluation Tools

Remote sensing

And

Fire Emissions Data Structure

Provide basic information on area burned within 10% accuracy; Provide for national emissions database useful in SIP/TIP development and large-scale planning.

Implementation of newer generation satellite information and data algorithms; New-generation web-based data structure for fire emissions inventory with linkage/data feed mechanisms to dispersion models

MEDIUM

$150,000 (remote sensing); $150,000 year (data structure – potential cost partnership with EPA, states)

Two years;

Three years

 

 

 

 

Table A-2. TASET Project Recommendations: Tactical/Permitting Level

Models or Tools

Recommended

Recommended

Information Source, Tool, or Model

Purpose and Need

Modifications Needed

Priority of Modification

Cost Estimation

Estimated Development Time

Fuels Information

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

HIGH

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Fuel Consumption Model

CONSUME

Simulations/

estimates of fuel amounts actually to be consumed

Improved projections of fuel consumption for emissions calculations

 

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Emissions Model

EPM/FOFEM

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

 

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Meteorology Data Source

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

MEDIUM

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Meteorology Models

MM5/RAMS, CALMET,

Provides information to predict fire behavior/conformance with burn prescription; input files for dispersion models.

Improved information/ spot forecasts to local fire managers through web-based delivery system; new model interface for CALMET so that it can be operated at local offices in a "NFSPUFF" emulation mode.

HIGH /

MEDIUM

$400,000 per year in regional centers from strategic level/ $150,000 per year.

Eight years for centers program from strategic level; Three years for CALMET/

CALPUFF project

Dispersion Model

CALPUFF and SASEM

Provides basic information on how fire emissions will support state programs for PM2.5, regional haze, and ozone; information to receive permits to burn.

New model interface for CALPUFF so that it can be operated at local offices in a "NFSPUFF" emulation mode; New generation SASEM with single and multi-fire modes.

MEDIUM

CALMET /

HIGH SASEM

$150,000 per year for CALMET/

CALPUFF (included in Meteorology Models); $65,000 per year for SASEM

See: Meteorology Models section;

Two years for new generation SASEM

Evaluation Tools

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

 

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section)

 

Table A-3. TASET Project Recommendations: Operations Level

Models or Tools

Recommended

Recommended

Information Source, Tool, or Model

Purpose and Need

Modifications Needed

Priority of Modification

Cost Estimation

Estimated Development Time

Fuels Information

Improved field techniques and technologies

Fuels information at grid resolutions down to ten meters for emissions calculations using newer generation GIS based models

As funded by JFSP

 

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Fuel Consumption Model

CONSUME/

BEHAVE

As funded by JFSP

As funded by JFSP

 

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Emissions Model

EPM

As funded by JFSP

As funded by JFSP

 

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Meteorology Data Source

Same as Strategic (covered by that section); Next Generation WIMS; new technology for on-site meteorology (SODARS/

LIDARS and portable weather stations)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section); WIMS modification by NFS to use AWIPS data stream;

Need for upper-air soundings and local scale transport meteorology for smoke transport/

trajectories

Same as Strategic (covered by that section); New WIMS must be modified to use data from AWIPS;

Use of SODARS/

LIDARS for upper-air soundings will need development of low-cost (>$8000) units; New automatic weather station data stream interface to proposed CALMET/

CALPUFF system, new generation SASEM, and fire behavior models

Same as Strategic (covered by that section);

HIGH/

URGENT (WIMS);

MEDIUM (SODARS/LIDARS/weather stations)

Same as Strategic (covered by that section);

WIMS funding covered by NFS but JFSP should coordinate;

$150,000 – SODARS/

LIDARS;

$25,000 –weather stations

Same as Strategic (covered by that section); New WIMS must be completed within one year period or less;

Two years – SODARS/

LIDARS;

Three years –weather stations

Meteorology Models

CALMET

Provides information to predict fire behavior/conformance with burn prescription; input files for dispersion models.

New model interface for CALMET so that it can be operated at local offices in a "NFSPUFF" emulation mode.

 

Same as Tactical/

Permitting (covered by that section)

Same as Tactical/

Permitting (covered by that section)

Dispersion Model

CALPUFF and SASEM

Provides basic information on if emissions will violate permit to burn.

Same as Tactical/

Permitting (covered by that section).

MEDIUM

CALMET-

CALPUFF /

HIGH

SASEM

Same as Tactical/

Permitting (covered by that section)

Same as Tactical/

Permitting (covered by that section)

Evaluation Tools

New fire site/ sensitive receptor emissions and ambient concentration techniques (e.g. Eye-safe LIDARS)

Measurement of non-point emissions and concentrations to ascertain emissions targets in plans and permits, also ensuring standards were not exceeded.

Development of Eye-safe LIDARS for field use to measure emissions species (including ozone pre-cursors), particle size distributions, ambient concentrations in ambient standards range, and visibility.

 

HIGH

$250,000 per year

Three years

 

Table A-4. TASET Project Recommendations: Evaluations Level

Models or Tools

Recommended

Recommended

Information Source, Tool, or Model

Purpose and Need

Modifications Needed

Priority of Modification

Cost Estimation

Estimated Development Time

Fuels Information

Same as Operational (covered by that section)

Same as Operational (covered by that section)

As funded by JFSP

 

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Fuel Consumption Model

CONSUME/

BEHAVE

As funded by JFSP

As funded by JFSP

 

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Emissions Model

EPM

As funded by JFSP

As funded by JFSP

 

As funded by JFSP

On-going

Meteorology Data Source

Historical records and data/

information collected at site

Trajectory/

receptor modeling to complete post-fire assessments

Data archive structure needed to store and disseminate on-site data, climate records, and seasonal weather simulations (as completed by Ferguson under JFSP)

LOW

$50,000 a year

Two years (starting after operational recommen-

dations completed)

Meteorology Models

CALMET

Provide adjusted local-scale, high-resolution wind fields for trajectory/

Receptor modeling.

Same as Operational (covered by that section)

 

Same as Operational (covered by that section)

Same as Operational (covered by that section)

Dispersion Model

Trajectory/

Receptor models

(National Park Service model guidelines and models)

Provides source information if emissions violated permit to burn, standards, planning goals, or SIP.

Formalization of NPS procedures and guidelines; development of model user interfaces and data input structures.

 

 

 

LOW

$100,000 a year

Three years

Evaluation Tools

Carbon source evaluation procedures and techniques for PM2.5 filters

Assessment of fire contributions to ambient standards violations and visibility impairment.

Development of new filter analysis techniques.

 

HIGH

$250,000 per year

Three years