CLEX-9 October 25th, 2001 Operations

Synopsis

• The CLEX-9 forecast team has decided to stand by all operations for Thursday, October 25th.
  
  
• Weather Forecast (made at 1500 MDT 10/17/01):

  
            We are on STAND-BY for CLEX operations on Thursday, 25 October 2001.  The 
            morning GO/NO-GO will be no earlier than 0330 MDT (0930Z) for an earliest 
            WYKA take-off time of 0530 MDT (1130Z).
  
            FORECAST DISCUSSION:
  
            The morning model runs show favorable NW'rly flow over the CLEX-9 target 
            region.  The big question will be how much moisture will be available to 
            support mid-level cloud formation.  The ETA hints at some moisture - but 
            ends up sending most of this moisture to our south.  Will have to wait for 
            morning nowcast to get a better handle on the 500 mb moisture.  Forecasted 
            mid-level subsidence may further dampen mid-level cloud formation.  
  
            OUTLOOK:
  
            Friday looks potentially favorable as there is still NW'rly flow aloft.  
            Moisture might be choked off a bit due to a high pressure ridge that begins 
            to build in over the western US.  By Saturday the ridge is expected to be 
            firmly in place over us with very little chance of mid-level clouds over the 
            CLEX-9 target region.  Next chance for cloud looks like late Sunday/early 
            Monday as another PAC low pressure system begins to nudge into our region.  
  
            Adam/Larry
  
    
  Morning Update (made at 0330 MDT 10/25/01): 
  
            We are on a delayed GO/NO GO decision for WYKA CLEX-9 operations for Thursday, 
            25 October 2001.  A final GO/NO GO decision will be made no sooner than 0600 
            MDT (1200 UTC) this morning for an earliest WYKA take-off time of 0800 MDT 
            (1400 UTC).  
  
            We are STANDING DOWN any dual aircraft operations this morning involving the 
            SPEC Lear Jet.  If we do go forward with CLEX-9 flight operations this morning 
            they will only be with the Wyoming King Air.
  
            DISCUSSION:  There are no target clouds around the region at this time.  But 
            the short range models do show mid-level cloud moving into the region around 
            0900 MDT (1500 UTC).  The big question is the timing of these clouds - hence 
            the delayed GO/ NO GO decision.  
  
            Next update:  0600 MDT (1200 UTC).
  
            Adam/Larry
  
    
  Next Morning Update (made at 0600 MDT 10/25/01): 
  
            After another round of nowcasting we have decided to STAND DOWN CLEX-9 operations 
            for Thursday, 25 October 2001.  
  
            DISCUSSION:  The updated satellite loops are still not  showing the advection of 
            the upstream mid-level moisture much past the ID/WY border region at this time.  
            The updated RUC is now delaying any cloud formation over the NE panhandle region 
            until afternoon.  Past experience with similar situations indicates that any cloud 
            that survives the morning die-off will have enhanced tops or be mostly ice cloud 
            (i.e. potential cirrus).  
  
            Tomorrow still looks like a potentially good day if the moisture forecasted makes 
            it into the CLEX-9 operational region.  The weekend continues to look dry and 
            unfavorable for mid-level cloud formation.
  
            Adam/Larry
  
  
  

Sunrise Information for North Platte, NE

Sunrise   
                     Central Daylight Time          

        Begin civil twilight       7:38 a.m.                 
        Sunrise                    8:07 a.m.                 
        Sun transit                1:27 p.m.                 
        Sunset                     6:48 p.m.                 
        End civil twilight         7:16 p.m.           
          

Weather Details

1200Z 500 mb Map



1216Z GOES IR Image


 

Aircraft Operations

• No UW King Air Operations

North Platte, NE Ground Operations

• Ground Instrument Status: Everything working well
  
  
  

Data Collection Highlights:

• Summary: Nothing to report